巧克力的原材料或将面临灭绝 Experts predict the world could run

Experts predict the world could run out of chocolate within 40 years, because cacao plants are struggling to survive in warmer climates.

专家预测称，由于可可树生长环境的变化，世界上的巧克力将在40年内消耗殆尽。

The trees can only grow within approximately 20 degrees north and south of the Equator — and they thrive under specific conditions such as high humidity and abundant rain.

可可树只能在赤道以南或者以北纬度约20度以内的地区生长——且它们需要特定的环境，如较高的湿度和充沛的雨水。

But a temperature rise of just 2.1C over the next 30 years caused by global warming is set to wreak havoc for the plants — and in turn the worldwide chocolate industry, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

但据美国国家海洋和大气管理局称，由于全球气候变暖，导致未来30年气温将上升2.1摄氏度，这将给可可树带来毁灭性灾害，从而影响全球巧克力的生产。

As the mercury rises and squeezes more water out of soil and plants, scientists believe it is unlikely that rainfall will increase enough to offset the moisture loss.

随着全球气温的不断升高，土壤和可可树的水分大量蒸发，科学家认为正常的降雨已经无法弥补水分的流失。

That means cacao production areas are set to be pushed thousands of feet uphill into mountainous terrain which is carefully preserved for wildlife by 2050.

如此一来，可可生产区的范围得不断向数千英尺高的山上移动，到2050年，可可树的种植区很可能被迫移至野生动物保护区。

Last year experts predicted that the world was heading for a "chocolate deficit" as shoppers in developing countries snapped up more of the sweet treat.

由于越来越多的发展中国家的消费者开始热衷巧克力这种点心，专家曾在去年预测，全球将面临“巧克力短缺”的问题。

For 286 bars, producers need to plant 10 cacao trees to make the cocoa and the butter — the key ingredients in the production of chocolate.

生产商需要种植10棵可可树，才能获得生产286块巧克力所需的关键原料：可可和黄油。

Despite the increased demand, supply has not kept up and stockpiles of cocoa are said to be falling.

然而，需求不断增加的同时，可可的储存量却在下滑。

Doug Hawkins, from London-based research firm Hardman Agribusiness, said production of cocoa is under strain as farming methods have not changed for hundreds of years.

伦敦一家调研公司的道格·霍金斯认为，可可产量变少，是因为过去几百年来，它的耕作方式没有发生变化。

He said: "Unlike other tree crops that have benefited from the development of modern, high yielding cultivars and crop management techniques to realise their genetic potential, more than 90 percent of the global cocoa crop is produced by smallholders on subsistence farms with unimproved planting material."

他说，“与其他得利于现代、高产和作物管理技术的作物不同，他们的产量得到了大幅提升，然而，全球超过90%的可可都是由小农户生产的，他们的种植方式一直没有升级改善。”